Analysis: "Averting a Sino-U.S. Space Race"

William Martel and Toshi Yoshihara's article gives a reasonable view of the possibility of a space race between the U.S. and China. They discuss the ambitions and fears of both sides, as well as the problems associated with their communication. They see that one cannot resolve the tensions by only looking from the American perspective; policymakers in the U.S. have to understand what China feels in order to act prudently and vice versa. Aside from this, they bring up important differences between the two countries which make open dialogue and cooperation difficult. Their thourough and balanced approach makes for a compelling argument.

First, they lay out both sides on the issue: China and the US. Both they equally represent, pointing out how each has similar goals and concerns. The US and China, for example, seek space development for national security. Martel and Yoshihara also touch on essential differences such as America's dependance on satellite technology to keep it's economy and society running. Thus, the US has established a need to maintain its control of space for its own sovereignty. The authors note that, to China, this seems like an selfish stance as they hope to have equal access to space as the US.

They also point out exactly why the two powers cannot reconcile easily. They see the solution to the tensions between China and the US as an opening of communications. In fact, they see it as vital. As they aptly point out, "mutual misconceptions can have serious and destabilizing consequences in the long term" (26). However, major problems such as technological imbalances and a the United States' desire to maintain a lead in development hinder such solutions. They conclude that the best way to avert conflict is "to develop institutions, rules, and procedures that provide a framework for confidence building in space" (30). A gradual improvement in regulations, to them is the best way to move forward.

Yoshihara and Martel build a sound argument by addressing both sides of the issue of tensions in space. By looking at both perspectives and suggesting openness, they develop a comprehensive analysis of the possibilities of a space race between China and the US. In the end, they conclusively prove the need to resolve the issues in space as well as provide a legitimate solution.

Source: Martel, William C., and Toshi Yoshihara. "Averting a Sino-U.S. Space Race."
     The Washington Quarterly (Fall 2003): 19-34. Accessed February 16, 2012.
     http://www.cfr.org/china/washington-quarterly-averting-sino-us-space-race/
     p12158.