Analysis: "Assessing Chinese Intentions for the Military Use of the Space Domain"

       In the article, "Assessing Chinese Intentions for the Military Use of Space", Paul Oh argues that China is not a threat to the US in space based on an examination of dominant Chinese political thinking. Instead, he posits that China is seeking to dominate its geographic region with the aid of space technology, citing two case studies of Chinese programs. Oh's argument is nuanced, referencing the more American-opposed side of Chinese politics but explaining that it is not a dominant view. The use of case studies gives concrete examples of how China is developing what he describes as a "'locally offensive' posture" in international relations. 
        Oh's discussion of Chinese political thinking thoroughly examines the main facets which dictate Chinese policy and legitimizes the author's thesis. In the first section, he outlines three major schools of political thought, the people's war, the local war, and the revolution in military affairs. The people's war, based on Mao's policy during the revolution, supports a defensive strategy relying on China's natural advantages: population and territory. Oh points out that this view does not lend much credence to the use of space technology and has largely faded to the background as the space program has taken off, though it still informs policy. The next school, the local war, is the one Oh believes dominates China's view on space development. The local war stresses the need for China to have influence and power over eastern Asia and not necessarily the world. Much like how the US wanted to have influence over Central and Southern America in the 19th century, China is using it's technology to do the same. The newest and most worrisome school (to the US), the Revolution in Military Affairs, aims for China to dominate space through preemptive and "asymmetrical" warfare (94). Oh dismisses this school however using case studies.
         Using the Antisatellite and Manned Space programs, Oh demonstrates how China is focusing on a locally offensive strategy. Conceding that the Antisatellite program was a diplomatic gesture intended to "put pressure on the United States to negotiate a treaty", brings up that the technology used is "easily acquirable and relatively inexpensive" and thus could not realistically challenge American space technology (95). This analysis highlights China's desire to keep from being shut out by American supremacy but lack of ability to dominate space. Oh makes the same argument for the Manned Space Program, allaying US concerns with the fact that the program is "relatively smaller" and uses technology "decades behind that of other modern nations" (96). Despite it seem[ing to be a threat to developed nations, the Manned Space Program only impressed China's "regional neighbors" (97). Oh ends by reassuring that the US should not be alarmed by China's space development but understand that it is mainly a tool for "reinforcing its regional hegemony" (98). Compellingly, he solidifies the view that China is not a threat to the United States.
           Paul Oh creates a sound argument for the alleviation of Western fears of Chinese supremacy in space. He provides a clear albeit general view of the competing views among Chinese policymakers, referencing a variety of sources which point to his conclusion. Along with an assessment of Chinese programs, Oh's outline of Chinese military politics makes a convincing case for the country's aim of being a regional superpower.




Source: Oh, Paul. "Assessing Chinese Intentions for the Military Use of the Space 
     Domain." Joint Force Quarterly, 2012, 91-98. Accessed January 31, 2012. 
     http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-intentions-space-domain.html.