Analysis: "China's Manned Space Program: What is that all about?"

         
        In "China's Manned Space Program: What is that all about?", Joan Johnson Freese examines the motivations and accomplishments of the Chinese Space Program as well as it's role in future competition in space. She pulls apart the prevailing views of China's space development to discern what threat it poses to the US as well as the world in space. Though many assume that China will either take on the US in a Cold War scenario, cement its regional influence, or simply increase national unity and prestige, Johnson-Freese posits that the path that China takes will likely involve a combination of outcomes. To support her claims, she compares the program to that of the Cold War US and looks at its achievements and stated plans.
        Looking back at the development of NASA during the Cold War, Johnson Freese builds a realistic idea of what aspects of China's program will become. Firstly, she notes that "space has always been a subfield of other policy areas" (26) for the US, applying this idea to China. This view suggests that the Chinese, like the Americans, seek space capabilities not only for military reasons, but for economic and scientific development. China has seen the far-reaching technological benifits reaped by the US and seeks to emulate that success. Also, with the development of a space program, the US garnered "a generation of highly-trained technical personnel" (26). Thus, citing increasing student interest in space, Johnson-Freese sees that China hopes to echo what happened in the US by cultivating enthusiasm for the program.
           Naturally, the author also looks at the space program's setbacks, strategy, and advantages. She gives good reason as to why the program is remarkable, referencing the "wrath of the cultural revolution" (28) as major hindrance to scientific development in China. She also points to the fact that, until recently, the space program was "virtually indigenous" (28), growing without the aid of other nations. Given that China has failed in the commercial launch market, Johnson-Freese infers that they will not likely see success until their launch costs and technology improves. To discern where the Chinese will take space development, Johnson-Freese looks at China's "numerous satellite programs" (29) and the various iterations of the Shenzou rocket. She sees that the Chinese are developing Shenzou with military and scientific purposes in mind. She also notices that the pace of development is gradual but consistent, with each new accomplishment building upon the last. Unlike the US, those involved in the program "are adamant about building a sustained program rather than planting a flag or returning a Moon rock" (30). This gradual ascent will likely bring China ahead of the rest of the world, given the limitations of democratic systems. One of the most important factors in this development is that "China doesn't have voters to worry about" (31). The public in India, Japan, and the US see space activities as "expendable relative to other public concerns" (31) and thus their governments cannot consistently advance their programs. This is why Johnson-Freese sees China as "destined to be a competitor" (32) to the US.
         Using comparisons with the US space program, as well as an in-depth look at the Chinese space program, Joan Johnson-Freese argues that China will likely be a leading nation in space, though not necessarily a military threat to the US. She sensibly points out that China has the same goals as most nations: scinetific and economic development, national pride, influence and is merely using the program to fulfill them. Likely, any advances in military capabilities will be for defense rather than to take the US head on. In any case, Johnson-Freese allays fears that China could become the villain in a new Cold War.


Source: Johnson-Freese, Joan. "China's Manned Space Program: What is that all about?"
     Harvard Asia Pacific Review 6, no. 2 (Fall 2002): 25-33. Accessed
     February 6, 2012. http://web.mit.edu/lipoff/www/hapr/fall02_science/
     space.pdf.